NASDAQ-100 E-Mini Futures · NQ · 10-Year Study · 2016–2026

ALN SESSIONS

Overnight Range Structural Analysis · Asia / London / New York · n = 2,542 Sessions
ALN Sessions is a structural framework that examines how the Asia session (20:00–02:00) and London session (02:00–08:00) interact overnight to form four distinct range patterns, each with measurable implications for the New York session (08:00–16:00). Patterns are classified at the 8:00 bar close — the final London bar — and probabilities reflect how often New York price action breaks the London high, London low, or both.
Asia 20:00 – 02:00
London 02:00 – 08:00
New York 08:00 – 16:00
Pattern classified at 08:00 bar close
Session Structure
Asia Session
20:00 → 02:00
Sets overnight reference range
London Session
02:00 → 08:00
Defines pattern vs Asia · Pattern locked at 08:00
New York Session
08:00 → 16:00
Measured outcome window
Total sessions
2,542
Mar 2016 – Mar 2026
Most common pattern
P3
Partial engulf up · 41.0%
Highest break prob
87%
P2 breaks London high
Breaks neither
<1%
Across all 4 patterns
Pattern Metrics — NY Break Probabilities
London Engulfs Asia
London high exceeds Asia high and London low undercuts Asia low. London fully expands beyond the overnight range on both sides — elevated two-way volatility into NY open.
Pattern 1
NY Break Probabilities
Breaks London High71.5%
Breaks London Low70.4%
Frequency
558 22.0%
Breaks Both
42.5%
If X breaks first
High first  50.7% of sessions
Low also breaks42.8%
Low first  48.7% of sessions
High also breaks42.6%
Breaks neither
558 sessions · 50/50 first-break split · fully symmetric
Asia Engulfs London
Asia high exceeds London high and Asia low undercuts London low. London compresses inside Asia's range — the market narrowed during European hours, a coiling precursor to a directional NY move.
Pattern 2
NY Break Probabilities
Breaks London High81.1%
Breaks London Low74.9%
Frequency
175 6.9%
Breaks Both
56.0%
If X breaks first
High first  53.1% of sessions
Low also breaks52.7%
Low first  46.9% of sessions
High also breaks59.8%
Low-first raises high-side probability
Breaks neither
0 sessions in 10 years — NY always breaks a level
Partial Engulf Up
London high exceeds Asia high; London low stays inside Asia range. London pushed higher without taking the Asian low — a bullish overnight lean with upside already extended into NY open.
Pattern 3
NY Break Probabilities
Breaks London High80.8%
Breaks London Low65.5%
Frequency
1,042 41.0%
Breaks Both
47.6%
If X breaks first
High first  62.0% of sessions
Low also breaks46.4%
Low first  36.8% of sessions
High still breaks51.2%
↓ 29.6pp from base 80.8% — edge lost
Breaks neither
1.2% of sessions · 13 sessions
Partial Engulf Down
London low undercuts Asia low; London high stays inside Asia range. London pushed lower without taking the Asian high — a bearish overnight lean with downside already extended into NY open.
Pattern 4
NY Break Probabilities
Breaks London High68.6%
Breaks London Low75.0%
Frequency
767 30.2%
Breaks Both
44.6%
If X breaks first
High first  44.6% of sessions
Low still breaks46.2%
↓ 28.8pp from base 75.0% — edge lost
Low first  54.4% of sessions
High also breaks44.1%
Breaks neither
1.0% of sessions · 8 sessions
Pattern Structure — Session Range Diagrams
Pattern 1 — London Engulfs Asia
London high > Asia high  ·  London low < Asia low
P1
Asia London A.Hi A.Lo L.Hi L.Lo O H L C O H L C
Pattern 2 — Asia Engulfs London
Asia high > London high  ·  Asia low < London low
P2
Asia London A.Hi A.Lo L.Hi L.Lo O H L C O H L C
Pattern 3 — Partial Engulf Up
London high > Asia high  ·  London low inside Asia range
P3
Asia London A.Hi A.Lo L.Hi L.Lo O H L C O H L C
Pattern 4 — Partial Engulf Down
London low < Asia low  ·  London high inside Asia range
P4
Asia London A.Hi A.Lo L.Hi L.Lo O H L C O H L C
Asia session range
London session range
Asia H/L reference
Open / close tick
Conditional First-Break Analysis — Patterns 3 & 4
Pattern 3 — Partial Engulf Up
When does the favored high break hold vs collapse? · 1,042 sessions
High breaks first 62.0% of P3 sessions · 646 days
→
46.4%
low also breaks
Low breaks first 36.8% of P3 sessions · 383 days — wrong side
→
51.2%
high still breaks  ↓ 29.6pp
Baseline probabilities
Breaks high (base)
80.8%
Breaks low (base)
65.5%
Breaks neither
1.2%
Pattern 4 — Partial Engulf Down
When does the favored low break hold vs collapse? · 767 sessions
High breaks first 44.6% of P4 sessions · 342 days — wrong side
→
46.2%
low still breaks  ↓ 28.8pp
Low breaks first 54.4% of P4 sessions · 417 days
→
44.1%
high also breaks
Baseline probabilities
Breaks low (base)
75.0%
Breaks high (base)
68.6%
Breaks neither
1.0%