NASDAQ-100 E-Mini Futures · NQ · 10-Year Study · 2016–2026

Hour Stats

NY Session  ·  08:00 – 16:00 ET
For each NY session hour, tracks when price opens strictly inside the prior hour's range, breaches the prior hour high or low by at least 1 tick (0.25 pts), and whether price reverts to the current hour's open before the hour closes. Only the first breach per hour is counted. Reversion is confirmed when any bar's wick touches or crosses the hour open after the breach flag is set. Each hour is further broken down into 20-minute segments (00–20, 20–40, 40–60) to show how the timing of the breach affects reversion probability. MAE (Maximum Adverse Excursion) measures the furthest price moved beyond the breached level before returning to the hour open, expressed as a % of the hour open. MFE (Maximum Favorable Excursion) measures how far price continued in the opposite direction of the breach after returning to the hour open, before the hour closed — also expressed as a % of the hour open.
Total breach events17,701
Overall reversion rate61.5%
Breach threshold1 tick · 0.25 pts
NY session08:00 – 16:00 ET
Reversion Probability by Hour
Breach events / reversion events · open strictly inside prior hour range
Hour BreachesRevertedRev % 00–2020–4040–60 MAE avgMFE avg
00–20 / 20–40 / 40–60 Breakdown
Reversion probability by breach timing segment
Adverse Move vs Post-Reversion Extension
Average % of hour open · all breach events