NASDAQ-100 E-Mini Futures · NQ · 10-Year Study · 2016–2026
NOON CURVE
Time-Based Range Analysis · 08:00 – 16:00 Eastern · n = 2,479 Sessions
The Noon Curve is a structural framework applied to a custom
Time-Based Range (TBR) spanning 8:00am to 4:00pm Eastern
on the NQ futures contract. The range is divided at noon — the Noon Curve midpoint —
creating an AM window (8:00–12:00) and a PM window (12:00–16:00).
The core thesis: in most sessions, the TBR high forms on one side of the midpoint and the TBR low
forms on the opposite side. It is statistically rare for both the high and the low to be contained
entirely within the AM or entirely within the PM.
The three anchor points — 8:00am open, 12:00pm midpoint,
and 4:00pm close — define the geometry of the session.
08:00TBR Open · Noon Curve anchor
12:00Noon Curve midpoint · AM / PM divide
16:00TBR Close · Noon Curve anchor
Example Noon Curve Structure · Typical Opposite-Side Session
Noon Curve — Structural Diagram
Illustrative session · AM forms TBR low · PM forms TBR high
Opposite-side session
Price path
TBR low — formed in AM window
TBR high — formed in PM window
Noon midpoint (12:00)
Illustrative example · Opposite-side session type
Session Classification · 10yr Study · 2,479 Sessions
1,805 sessions
72.81%
Opposite sides
TBR high & low split across AM and PM
541 sessions
21.82%
Both in AM
TBR high & low contained in AM window
133 sessions
5.37%
Both in PM
TBR high & low contained in PM window
Extreme Formation Time Distribution
AM Extreme Formation Times
High & low times pooled · n = 4,958 · Normal distribution fit
μ = 10:12
AM high & low combined
Mean
10:12
Std Dev
72 min
Window
8:00 – 12:00
n
4,958
PM Extreme Formation Times
High & low times pooled · n = 4,958 · Normal distribution fit
μ = 2:04pm
PM high & low combined
Mean
2:04pm
Std Dev
88 min
Window
12:00 – 16:00
n
4,958
% Change from 8am TBR Open · Relevant Subsets Only
AM High — % from Open
Sessions where AM made the TBR high · n = 1,322
μ = +0.46%
AM high move from 8am open
Mean
+0.46%
Std Dev
0.52%
Median
+0.31%
n
1,322
AM Low — % from Open
Sessions where AM made the TBR low · n = 1,565
μ = −0.52%
AM low move from 8am open
Mean
−0.52%
Std Dev
0.52%
Median
−0.36%
n
1,565
PM High — % from Open
Sessions where PM made the TBR high · n = 1,157
μ = +1.07%
PM high move from 8am open
Mean
+1.07%
Std Dev
0.91%
Median
+0.88%
n
1,157
PM Low — % from Open
Sessions where PM made the TBR low · n = 914
μ = −1.29%
PM low move from 8am open
Mean
−1.29%
Std Dev
1.00%
Median
−1.05%
n
914
Noon Curve Quarterly Confluence
Quarter 2 break confluence
Within the AM session, Quarter 1 (8:00–10:00) establishes the initial range — a high and a low.
When Quarter 2 (10:00–12:00) subsequently breaks one side of that Q1 range,
it provides directional confluence for how the full session is likely to resolve.
When Q2 breaks the Q1 high, the data shows the AM session goes on to set the
TBR low and the PM session sets the TBR high
in 82.12% of opposite-side sessions —
suggesting the Q2 upside break exhausts AM buying, leaving the PM to extend to new highs
while the AM anchors the session low.
Conversely, when Q2 breaks the Q1 low, the AM sets the
TBR high and the PM sets the TBR low
in 72.42% of opposite-side sessions.
When Q2 breaks both sides or neither, the signal collapses to a near coin-flip with no meaningful edge.
Example: Q2 breaks Q1 high
TBR low forms in Q1 before the break · PM sets TBR high · 82.12% outcome
Structural example
TBR low sets in Q1 (before break)Q2 breaks Q1 highTBR high sets in PM
Q1
8:00 – 10:00
AM · First 2 hours
Q2
10:00 – 12:00
AM · Second 2 hours
Q3
12:00 – 2:00pm
PM · Third 2 hours
Q4
2:00pm – 4:00pm
PM · Fourth 2 hours
Probability of setting the AM extreme · n = 2,305 (174 excluded: Q1 set both AM high & low)
Q1 sets AM high or low
84.95%
1,958 of 2,305 sessions
Q1 sets the AM high
39.61%
913 of 2,305 sessions
Q1 sets the AM low
45.34%
1,045 of 2,305 sessions
When Q2 breaks Q1 levels · Opposite-side sessions only · n = 1,805