1H Continuation

“1H Continuation” looks to see if price continues the direction of a specific hour, for example does the rest of the session go up if the 6pm opening hour closes green.

The bellow metrics were calculated from a 10yr sample, 2014-2024. Times listed are in Eastern Standard.

This metric looks at if continuation occurs after an initial move. For this first example, the focus will be on the first hour of a new session, the 6pm hour. If this hour closes up or down, what does the rest of the session do? What does NY session do?

If the 6pm ET open hour closes green/red, what does the rest of the session do?

In the above, we see that if the 6pm open hour closes green, the entire session closed green 59% of the time. Not very much of a statistical edge here.

But notice the NY session closing red. This actually has an inverse outcome. If the 6pm hour closes red, the NY session (930am to 4pm) will have closed red 44% of the time. Meaning 4pm closing price was lower than 9:30am opening price, 44% of the time, which implies that it actually closed green more often.

If the 9am ET hour closes green/red, what does the rest of the session do?

Now what about the 9am hour. Here we get the NY open volatility injection at 9:30am when the NY session opens, so when this hour closes at 10am, does the direction of this hour have any impact on the entire session or NY session?

In the above, we see much higher numbers, providing what could be used as a statistical edge. Here we see that if the 9am hour closes green, than the full session (daily candle) was green 67% of the time. 

Note the NY session. If the 9am hour closes green, than the NY session closed green 70% of the time. In other words the 4pm closing price was higher than the 9:30am opening price, 70% of the time, if the 9am candle closes green. This is a strong statistical edge that can be used to help create bias and provide expectations for trades already open.

What does this look like on a chart?