Noon Curve

"Noon Curve" is a concept, specific to the NY session, that looks at price in relation to the left side of 12pm and the right side of 12pm. It highlights the price expectancy for each given half.

The below metrics were calculated from a 20yr sample, 2004-2024. Times listed are in Eastern Standard.

Candles are created with four pieces of information. The open, high, low and the close. These either get created as OHLC or OLHC. This entails that the candle opens, sets a high or low, expands a bit, than sets the opposite high/low and closes. If the only ingredients to this are price, than time is arbitrary and any duration of time can be used to create a candle of the users desire.

Specifically, for the noon curve, we are looking at a synthetic candle created during the hours of 8am to 4pm ET. This creates a custom 8 hour candle, with 12pm being the middle of the candle, as it relates to time.

If we expect a low and a high to form within this synthetic candle, what are the probabilities the two form on the same side, the AM side (8am-12pm) or the PM side (12pm-4pm). What about the probability of the high and low forming on opposite sides of the 12pm mid-point?

Looking at 20yrs of data...

What does this look like on a chart?

So if the 8am-4pm session has a high and low on opposite sides 74.3% of the time, there is an expectancy of price to set the opposite on the PM side if you believe a specific one is already formed on the AM side.

We can also take it a step slightly further and see what the most common times are to set these highs and lows.

Additionally, we can look at how far from the 8am open these highs and lows form, giving us not only a time statistic but a price statistic.

We now have data that shows historically, the optimal time for these highs and lows to form, and the optimal movement away from the 8am open that these highs and lows form relative to price.

Ex: If time is between 9:00am - 10:00am, and price is roughly -0.50% away from the 8am open price, there is a chance you are in a zone where the NY AM Low will be forming.

This information can help you frame trade ideas and additionally help you with price expectations for positions you may be carrying into the lunch hour, past 12pm. With a historical probability of 74%, one could assume a new high will form in the PM part of the NY session, assuming the AM formed the low.