Hour Stats
“Hour Stats” looks at each individual hour during the NY session.
The bellow metrics were calculated from a 10yr sample, 2014-2024. Times listed are in Eastern Standard.
If the current hour opens inside the prior hour, and the current hour trades above or below the prior hours high or low (sweeps), than what is the probability of price returning to the current hours open?
Ex: 10am hour opens inside 9am hour, and takes the 9am high (sweeps). Historically there is a 72% probability that price will trade back to the 10am open.
Opens inside prior hour, takes prior hour high/low, and trades back to current hour open
But what about the time of the sweep happening? Surely the probability of retracing back to 10am open lowers if you sweep at 10:45 vice 10:05, right? Below is the same logic as above, but factoring in time. Looking at the first, second and third 20 minute segments of each hour, and the associated probabilities.
Ex: 10am hour opens inside 9am hour, and takes the 9am high (sweeps), at 10:28. This falls in the second 20 minute segment. The probability of retracing back to the 10am open before the 10am candle closes is 47%.
When you think about how a candle forms, this logically makes sense. The earlier the sweep happens, the higher the probability of retracement back to the hours open, due to the event happening prior to the candle expanding.
The early and late portions of a candle are typically where the wicks form, the middle part relative to time, is the expansion. This will be shown in the next metric below.
High and low formation times
When does the high and low of each hour form, relative to time? Specifically, each 20 minute segment. This data shows where one could anticipate the wick to form of a specific hour. The lowest probability segments are highlighted in yellow.
Note the 9am hour. This is due to the volatility injection from the 9:30am NY market open. That increased volatility typically results in prior swing points being ran. So one could expect, given the data, that any high or low during the first 20 minutes of the 9am candle is likely to not hold.
This data also validates the idea previously mentioned, that the middle portion of the candle is the expansion, and the first and second segments are where the wick is likely to form.
