Initial Balance Breaks

“Initial Balance Breaks” looks to see how often, historically, price breaks the initial balance high, low and over all total. Initial Balance or IB is calculated by using the high and low set between 9:30am and 10:30am ET.

The bellow metrics were calculated from a 10yr sample, 2014-2024. Times listed are in Eastern Standard.

Here we are looking at Initial Balance as it relates to breaking before the NY session ends at 4pm ET.

IB Breaks Before NY Session Ends (4pm ET)

In the above, we see that IB is broken, in general, 96% of the time historically over the last 10 years, prior to 4pm ET. In other words, historically, either the high or low set between 9:30am to 10:30am ET broke 96% of the time, before 4pm ET.

IB Breaks Before 12pm ET

What about narrowing the focus to IB breaking before "lunch" or 12pm ET? I myself prefer to only trade the morning half of the NY session, so I would much rather know this metric personally.

In the above, we see that IB is broke, in general, 83% of the time historically over the last 10 years, prior to 12pm ET. In other words, historically, either the high or low set between 9:30am to 10:30am ET broke 83% of the time, before 12pm ET.

This information/data can help you with conviction or confidence with a certain price point getting hit, or avoiding taking a trade all together.

What does this look like on a chart?