Initial Balance Breaks

“Initial Balance Breaks” looks to see how often, historically, price breaks the initial balance high, low and over all total. Initial Balance or IB is calculated by using the high and low set between 9:30am and 10:30am ET.

The below metrics were calculated from a 10yr sample, 2014-2024. Times listed are in Eastern Standard.

Here we are looking at Initial Balance as it relates to breaking before the NY session ends at 4pm ET.

IB Breaks Before NY Session Ends (4pm ET)

In the above, we see that IB is broken, in general, 96% of the time historically over the last 10 years, prior to 4pm ET. In other words, historically, either the high or low set between 9:30am to 10:30am ET broke 96% of the time, before 4pm ET.

IB Breaks Before 12pm ET

What about narrowing the focus to IB breaking before "lunch" or 12pm ET? I myself prefer to only trade the morning half of the NY session, so I would much rather know this metric personally.

In the above, we see that IB is broke, in general, 83% of the time historically over the last 10 years, prior to 12pm ET. In other words, historically, either the high or low set between 9:30am to 10:30am ET broke 83% of the time, before 12pm ET.

What Side Will Break?

There is correlation with what side the IB breaks and where the IB closes its range. During this lookback sample, when the IB closed in the upper half of that range, the high of the IB was broken 81% of the time. When the IB closed in the lower half of that range, the low was broken 74% of the time. This logic can provide an expectation as to what side of the IB you should be expecting. 

Click the image below to enlarge.